By Chris Lee

Social media continues to evolve and keep digital practitioners on their toes. 2011 saw Google hit back with its Plus social network, while Facebook unveiled a whole raft of changes to its pages, impacting thousands of brands.

One thing is clear: social media will continue to be a key business focus in 2012. A joint survey from Booz Allen and Buddy Media found that almost two thirds (57 per cent) of businesses surveyed will increase social media spend in 2012. 38 percent of CEOs say they view social media as a high priority.

NMK spoke to three key contacts to see what their key prediction for social media in 2012 is.

Roger Warner, CEO, Content and Motion

Everyone finally figures out that successful Social PR is not about brands talking to people, but people talking about brands. The former is just bad, expensive marketing which doesn't scale - and is currently driven by a lust for Likes; the latter is great marketing - near-frictionless, scalable activity measured by meaningful things like actions, reactions, shares, sentiment, distribution and reach.

Creative assets get smarter. We'll stop over investing in great looking 'viral' set pieces that divert attention and start delivering creative programs that channel attention by encouraging people to care, share and continue the conversation elsewhere. This work will be almost exclusively ideas based (and ephemeral). Winners will be those who understand the behavioural economics and psychology of people on social networks and what makes them tick. It'll also help brands to understand that not everyone wants to talk to them on Facebook - and this will be a positive step.

Lucy Freeborn, head of social media and content, Leapfrogg

While offline marketers have been waiting for the “Year of Mobile” to start since 2009, the digital industry has been experimenting with and slipping mobile executions and tactics into their campaign all over the place this year. Most recently on a mainstream level with John Lewis trialling QR code windows promoting their Waitrose click and collect service in various locations across the UK. It was actually “mobile’s year” in 2011! But 2012 will see more effective integration into on and offline marketing campaigns as brands really start joining the dots between digital channels and breaking down the silos between the channels to end users. As the penetration of smartphones grows, mobile optimisation of websites, multichannel promotions and campaigns redeemable across social, mobile and print have to be the norm for all brands by the end of next year. It is also the responsibility of genuinely consultative digital agencies to de-mystify mobile for their clients.

As a digital marketing agency with search at our core, Leapfrogg understands the buying cycle of the online consumer better than most digital marketing agencies. The consumer is so comfortable buying gifts, fast fashion, electronics and entertainment online now, that if brands operating in this space aren’t already thinking about how they can create channels to purchase via their social media channels they are already behind the curve. The easier you make it for your customers to interact, converse with, review and buy your products with as few clicks as possible, the better it’s going to be for your sales figures. We’re working with our clients on a variety of simple social applications to encourage sales via social channels. Wary brands don’t need to commit to full Facebook shopping functionality immediately, but by starting to capture data, encourage honest reviews, get customer services communicating via social channels and enabling social sharing once purchases are made, we can start demonstrating how Social can have a measureable effect on ecommerce.

Ged Carroll, digital strategist, Ruder Finn

I guess the most interesting thing about 2012 is the inherent uncertainty of it all. We are standing on the edge looking into a chasm of bad economic signs. We have a muscular media and telecoms sector basically declaring war on the web from the UK's Digital Economy Act, changing 'unlimited' broadband tariffs and a government policy that is at odds with the state of the UK broadband network. Out of all this mess I think that we'll see innovation borne of adversity.

Firstly Facebook. The social network is a bag of contradictions: spectacularly successful, yet many of its users are ambivalent about it or are grudgingly on it because they have to be. Facebook pages and apps from status takeovers to F-commerce have become the 21st century version of the 90-second TV spot - something that every marketer pitches to a client, whether or not they are needed. Given that the average punter rarely meaningfully engages with more than two brands on Facebook, above-the-line is going to be more important - agencies will need to adopt smart campaign management tools to get most of Facebook as I expect there will be substantial inventory price inflation. I expect the arbitrage opportunity between Google Adwords and Facebook to be so narrow as to be meaningless, the big bargain will be Facebook's mobile inventory - if it can be mapped to context (location, weather, time of day, proximity of friends etc.). Also expect companies to try and use timelines as new banner ads through apps a la Mountain Dew and Volkswagen.

The second more interesting story around Facebook is likely to be around engagement. I expect engagement with the platform to drop in developed markets - frictionless sharing, privacy issues and Timeline making people feel more antsy. You won't see a departure, but you are likely to see a drop in time and reduction in Facebook specific user generated content creation.

Given the oversupply of start-ups in areas such as social networks, micro-currencies and coupons - I expect to see more interesting start-up ideas from redundant technical people rather than wannabe entrepreneurs. The cost of creating a start-up won't drop massively like it did post the dot com boom mainly because infrastructure can be already bought cheaply via Amazon etc. and eBay won't be flooded with Sun servers and Cisco routers.