While fixed-line telephony has radically changed the way we have interacted over the past hundred years, the explosion of mobile communications has had an even greater impact � and has done so in just two decades. 

It�s brought about what we at Filter refer to as the �just in time society� � we decide what to do on an ad-hoc basis since we�re rarely out-of-touch with everyone else.  It has brought fluidity to our lives, flexibility to our businesses and created a new way of interacting.

This article attempts to look into the crystal ball and pick out five evolutions of mobile communications that will be common-place come 2009, five years into the future from the writing of this article.

As with any attempt to predict the future, I�m sure many of these will fall way short of what actually happens but they certainly highlight the kind of space application service providers and user experience designers will need to get to grips with over the next few years.

Networks, Networks Everywhere

Everywhere you go there are networks, so it�s a shame that today�s portable devices generally only use one or two of them. 

A regular handset in 2004 utilises GSM [General System for Mobile] for most communication requirements and may have BlueTooth built in for hands-free or synchronisation with desktop computers. 

In 2009 your phone will automatically switch to the fastest network depending on your location � out and about it will use UMTS [Universal Mobile Telecommunications System, or �3G� as it is sometimes known]; at the office it will switch to 802.11g Wi-Fi; at home it may use your wireless network or tie in with your PC via BlueTooth to leverage your xDSL connection.

This delivers superior speeds, the ability leverage multiple networks to balance traffic loads and the added benefit of forcing down the costs to the end user.

Universal SIM

Today�s mobile users may have several devices and each one will have a SIM � this is a Subscriber Identity Module which tells the device what number it has, how to encrypt communications, network authentication and all that good stuff.

SIMs get more and more important as more devices get augmented with mobile communication abilities.  In 2004 many people use four SIMs � one for the business phone, one for their private mobile, one for the portable email client and one for the car.

In 2009 we�ll have the equivalent of the �Universal SIM� which is capable of holding more than one number and authenticating more than one network.  And best of all, you�ll probably have this as a device independent of any handset. 

Which means when someone calls you for a voice call, the uSIM will find the best device to route that call to [e.g. your desktop phone] or if you get an email it will find the best device for that [e.g. your computer or your BlackBerry]. 

The added advantage for callers is that they will be communicating with you, not a number associated with you, and the uSIM will automatically locate the correct device for you to use in the interaction.

Look-Up vs Storage

A particularly annoying element of mobile communications in 2004 is that the handset deals with storage of information in entirely the wrong way. 

Stuff you really, really need � like people�s contact details � are stored on the handset itself, so when you lose the handset you lose that vital information.  Okay � so you may back it up to your desktop computer, but that�s not a lot of use when you�ve had your phone nicked and you�re miles away from home.

On the other hand, content like video, which you really want stored on your handset so you can play with it when you�re out of network range [e.g. on the Underground] is increasingly �streamed� live to your device.  This is dumb - unless you�re a network operator trying to charge users for pay-per-play and we all know that is a heinous direction to go down.

By 2009 we�ll have fixed this.  In the future, my address book will be a network function so I can access it not only from my handset but from anyone else�s using my user/pass info.  If I�m out of network range my phone will refer to the version it stores internally but if I store new information the network is automatically updated.

Conversely, video and audio will be purchased and stored on the handset, not served each time from the network.  In 2004 I can already buy a gigabyte of storage for my phone � following Moore�s Law we�ll have phones capable of storing a complete DVD by 2009.

Joined Up Content

Today every network is trying to sell its concept of value-added information via their branded portals [Vodafone Live being a successful example with 7 million users]. The problem is that a very small percentage of mobile users actually use these services and � even worse � usage is generally sporadic.

The reason for this is that there is very little content which is designed specifically for mobile use.  So people really want to watch traditional television shows on their mobiles?  Evidence says they do not, especially when the quality is bad.  Do people want to read snippets of news on their handsets as they drive from one meeting to another?  Evidence says they�d rather listen to the radio.

In 2009 the content on mobile devices will be much more mobile-aware.  It will also be generated with a better understanding of what works well on mobile screens and what doesn�t.

At Filter we call this concept �joined up content� because it is user-ware, location-aware and smarter than the previous attempts.  Once we start providing this kind of quality content to mobile devices we�ll see regular use from hundreds of millions of subscribers, not a handful of them. 

And that�s when the real revenues start to flow � not for charging users for access [which should kind of be free, anyway] but rather charging brands to have the opportunity to talk to those viewers.

Personalisation

And lastly, the dreaded "P" word.  Mobile is perhaps the one platform where personalisation is really going to make a big difference.

The TV is a shared device.  The PlayStation is a shared device.  In many households, the PC is a shared device.  The mobile is perhaps the most important personal device in our lives.

In 2004 the mobile is really not personalised in any meaningful way.  Okay, so you can change covers and ring tones, but personalisation is much more than that.  It�s about generating a user experience which is tailored to you.  And the mobile is the best device to learn what you like to do because you�re the only person using it.

Come 2009 your mobile will be the primary delivery platform for personalised information, be it text, voice, audio, video or interactive content.  It will increasingly be the first point of contact because it�s always with you and it�s always on.

About the Author: Alasdair Scott FRSA is Creative Partner at Filter, the leading mobile marketing, applications and content agency.  Filter works with leading agencies, brands and content owners enabling them to deploy services to today�s popular mobile markets as well as emerging platforms.  Prior to Filter, Alasdair was co-founder of AMX Studios and Arnold Interactive. www.filter-uk.com